Monday, May 01, 2006

Good definition of "secular" in Waters magazine interview with Pimco

Can you define the investment meaning of "secular"?

How about "a three-to-five-year trend that is independent of business cycles"?

Read below for a fuller explanation by Mark Kiesel, executive vice president and generalist portfolio manager with Pimco. This is excerpted from a Q&A that appeared in Waters magazine.

Waters: What do you mean by secular?

Kiesel: Secular is more of a three-to-five-year trend that is independent of business cycles. With business cycles, you tend to have recessions, growth spurts and monetary policy, which counteract the business cycle. A secular trend is a longer-term approach. An example is the industrialization of emerging markets, the globalization of the work force and aging of the population. These are secular trends that have significant implications for interest rates, inflation and economic growth. We hopefully do a good job of anticipating these big-picture changes in interest rates, credit trends, volatility, sector rotation and so forth.

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