Monday, June 26, 2006

Twelve-month stock market predictions from the experts in Montreal

What are prominent experts predicting for world stock markets over the next 12 months?

In my June 2006 e-newsletter, I reported some of the more interesting predictions made at the Montreal CFA Society's Annual Forecast Dinner on June 8.

Here are their percentage forecasts for the next 12 months' returns by the S&P 500, Canadian, Japanese and emerging market stocks. Sorry, but I can't get tabs to work, so the numbers are squished together.

Speaker S&P 500 Canada Japan Emerging markets

DR flat -5% +10% -5%

VP +10% +5% + 5% +20%

CB +6% to +8% +10% +15% +15% to +25%

VS +15% flat +20% +>15% excepting BRIC countries*

* Templeton launching a BRIC fund is the "kiss of death" for those stocks, said VS. BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China.

Here's the key to the prognosticators:
DR =
David Rosenberg, Chief Economist for North America, Merrill Lynch (US)

VP =
Vinay Pande, Managing Director, Global Strategy in the Global Markets Division, Deutsche Bank Europe)

CB =
Carl Bang, CFA, President & Managing Director, State Street Global Advisors

VS =
Vincent Strauss, Managing Director, Member of the Executive Committee, Head of Asian Emerging Markets team, Comgest Far East Limited (Hong Kong)



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